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Findings
- Go to finding 1Most homeowners who cash-out refinanced switched into a longer loan with a lower rate but a higher monthly payment due to the new larger loan balance.
- Go to finding 2After controlling for secular trends, homeowners who obtained a cash-out refinance had no change in income whereas homeowners who extracted equity via a HELOC experienced declining income.
- Go to finding 3收到现金后，支出立即飙升，并迅速降至高于基线的水平. Within a year, homeowners who cash-out refinanced spent 33 percent of the total equity liquidated (5 percent of home value) while homeowners with a HELOC spent 47 percent (3 percent of home value).
- Go to finding 4The largest consumption responses for both cash-out refinances and HELOCs were from younger homeowners and those with higher loan-to-value ratios.
- Go to finding 5Implications
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December 2020
大约三分之二的美国家庭拥有住房, making the housing market an important source of economic activity and an important vehicle through which monetary policy is transmitted to the real economy. For most homeowners, 他们的房子是他们最重要的财富来源——一项可以随着抵押贷款的偿还而增值的资产. 因此，当需要时，房主可以利用这些财富——他们的房屋净值. Household behavior around the withdrawal of home equity has important implications for consumption at the macroeconomic level and for the efficacy of monetary policy. And, from a household finance perspective, liquidating home equity responsibly can play an important role in smoothing consumption when homeowners are faced with income disruptions or consumption spikes.
In this report, we use loan-level mortgage servicing data combined with administrative deposit account data to ask: to what extent does liquidating home equity boost consumer demand? We also examine the income dynamics around equity extraction in order to understand the role that a household’s financial situation may play in influencing their decision to extract equity from their home.
Finding One: Most homeowners who cash-out refinanced switched into a longer loan with a lower rate but a higher monthly payment due to the new larger loan balance.
Among our cash-out refinance sample, we find that the largest group of homeowners ended up with a higher monthly payment despite having refinanced into a loan with a lower interest rate and longer term. 这个较高的月供是通过更大的贷款提取现金的结果. 房主似乎优先考虑立即需要大量现金，而不是随着时间的推移支付较低的月供.
|
Pre-refinance |
Post-refinance |
Median difference |
Principal balance |
$144,769 |
$195,000 |
$46,429 |
Interest rate |
4.50% |
4.00% |
-0.38 pp |
Term (years) |
24.2 |
30.0 |
3.7 |
Monthly payment |
$881 |
$1,091 |
$125 |
Note: All values shown are medians. 中位数是为每列单独计算的，因此中位数差不一定等于中位数差.
Source: JPMorgan Chase Institute
Finding Two: After controlling for secular trends, homeowners who obtained a cash-out refinance had no change in income whereas homeowners who extracted equity via a HELOC experienced declining income.
使用考虑时间趋势的事件研究框架, 我们发现，那些通过HELOCs提取股权的人在提取股权前后收入下降, 而那些套现再融资的人的收入路径则是平坦的. These patterns help us to understand which home-owners use these different products to access home equity and under what circumstances—though it is important to note that these results are specific to a rising interest rate environment, 在什么情况下，再融资的吸引力不如利率下降时那么大.
Finding Three: 收到现金后，支出立即飙升，并迅速降至高于基线的水平. Within a year, homeowners who cash-out refinanced spent 33 percent of the total equity liquidated (5 percent of home value) while homeowners with a HELOC spent 47 percent (3 percent of home value).
For both cash-out refinances and HELOCs, we find that consumption increased dramatically in the month that the first instance of home equity extracted hit the homeowner’s deposit account. Then, just as quickly, consumption settled to a level that is higher than baseline spending for both cash-out refinances (7 percent higher) and HELOCs (5 percent higher). After one year, the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of liquidated home equity was 33 percent for homeowners with a cash-out refinance and 47 percent for homeowners with a HELOC.
Finding Four: The largest consumption responses for both cash-out refinances and HELOCs were from younger homeowners and those with higher loan-to-value ratios.
Finding Five: Implications
Our results suggest that policies facilitating access to home equity withdrawal could have significant macroeconomic effects because the consumption response to this liquidity from home equity is large.
For this reason, removing frictions and barriers to home equity withdrawal would improve the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy through both the housing wealth effect channel (as equity extraction is the mechanism that links home price appreciation to increased consumption) and the refinancing channel (as the spending response to additional cash on hand complements the response to lower monthly payments).
自经济大衰退(Great Recession)以来，重大障碍使股票退出活动一直处于低位, 包括供给和需求因素(见法雷尔等人的讨论). 2020) and well-documented frictions to refinancing. The current low levels of equity extraction activity compared to historically high levels implies that if some of these barriers were removed to allow for greater equity withdrawal, 这可能对消费产生巨大的宏观经济影响. 事实上，黑骑士估计，截至2020年第一季度，这一数字为6美元.5万亿美元的房屋净值可以在有抵押贷款的房主之间进行清算.
The ability to liquidate wealth from one's home may be especially important for homeowners if they have substantial home equity but face economic uncertainty, as is the case during the COVID-19-induced recession. 家庭坐拥历史上大量的房屋净值, in contrast to the Great Recession, 到目前为止，他们的房屋净值头寸还没有缩水吗. 鉴于现金流动态和流动性对于消费和保持当前债务支付的重要性, 继续获得房屋净值可以通过提供所需的流动性，在帮助房主度过经济衰退方面发挥重要作用. In the current interest rate environment, 特别是再融资可以通过降低月供和/或大量注入现金来提供流动性. Of course, 清算房屋净值的好处必须与维持负责任的贷款实践相平衡, all the more difficult in an uncertain economic climate.
了解私营部门在为房主提供房屋净值提取服务方面面临的内在复杂性, the public sector may want to consider government-backed alternatives that allow homeowners to access the illiquid wealth in their homes if experiencing income disruption in order to avoid more costly impacts to families or the overall mortgage market. A federally guaranteed home equity product or program similar to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) implemented after the housing market crash in the late 2000s could help more homeowners who would benefit from refinancing actually do so.
Data Asset:
来自2012年至2018年间超过1600万大通抵押贷款客户的数据, we created a sample of over 50,000 customers who (1) withdrew equity from their home through either a Chase-to-Chase cash-out refinance or a Chase home equity line of credit (HELOC) that they borrowed against, and (2) also had a Chase deposit account.
